We address the question of the impact of a possible Trump reelection on the location choices of potential Mexican migrants. We use migration aspiration data from the Gallup World Poll Surveys which provide the preferred location choices of Mexican respondents before, during and after the Trump Presidency. We show that Trump presidency led to an increase in disapproval rates about the US leadership among Mexican respondents, which in turn led to a reduced level of attractiveness of the US location. Using a Cross-Nested Logit model that allows to account for the heterogeneity in the substitution patterns between alternative locations to the US, we simulate the impact of a possible reelection of Donald Trump based on different scenarios about these disapproval rates. We find that such a reelection would lead to an increase in the number of stayers in Mexico but would also create heterogeneous immigration pressures from Mexico across potential foreign locations. In particular, countries such as Canada, the UK, Germany, Spain, and France would face significantly higher increases in Mexican immigration pressures. We also show that the reelection of Donald Trump would lower the skill content of Mexican potential immigrants in the US and would induce an opposite effect in destinations that are perceived as close substitutes.

Education has become a highly international export good with increasing numbers of students learning abroad. Yet, little is known about the way international students migrate and how policies influence their decision. This article evaluates the policy in one German state to charge tuition from international students since 2017, while education remains free in all other states. For my analysis, I collect and combine publicly available records for institutions of higher education in Germany since 1998. Using difference-in-differences, I find a significant decrease of about 2 percentage points in international enrollment in the treated state after the policy change. Africa and Asia are the most affected continents of origin. In contrast to state government motivations, I find no evidence for a short-term decrease in exam failure rates.

Immigration restrictions to the US are rather modern policies. One of the most significant policy changes, the Johnson-Reed Act of 1924, drastically limited the number of new immigrants per year, especially from Asia. In combination with the Emergency Quota Act of 1921, immigration per country was capped at 2 percent of the respective population in the 1890 census. In this paper, I examine to what extent immigration restrictions affected labor market outcomes of prior migration cohorts. Using decennial census data, I apply a difference-in-difference estimation, considering that restrictions initially did not impact the Philippines, then a US territory. My findings indicate that initial immigration restrictions affected exempted Filipinos, highlighting the impact of competition on their economic assimilation. Relative to other migrants, labor force participation and employment rates of Filipinos increased while their log income scores declined. This finding corroborates previous studies that emphasize the relevance of substitutability among immigrant cohorts. Individual panel data analysis partially supports the findings in the cross-sectional evaluation.